El Bono Demográfico




Oportunidad o Compromiso




El “Bono Demográfico” es, en pocas palabras, un cambio en la estructura de la población, de tal forma que la gráfica que se genera a partir de los datos poblacionales, deja de parecerse a una pirámide y se asemeja más a un barril porque la población, al reducirse los índices de natalidad, el sector que pertenece a las edades económicamente productivas supera de alguna manera a los sectores de edad menor a 14 años y mayor de 60. Los países en los cuales una porción considerable de su población ya alcanzó la edad de trabajar y ahorrar pueden ver impulsado el crecimiento de su ingreso, como consecuencia de la mayor proporción de trabajadores, de la acumulación acelerada del capital y de la reducción del gasto en personas dependientes. Este fenómeno es conocido como el “bono demográfico”.
En un reporte de actividades del Consejo Nacional de Población del 2004 se estima que “la oferta de mano de obra en México aumentaría de 42 millones de personas en 2000 a 64 millones en 2030, implicando incrementos medios anuales del orden de 910 mil en la primera década del presente siglo, 798 mil durante la segunda y 477 mil en la tercera. El estado de México seguirá concentrando la mayor parte de la Población Económicamente Activa (PEA) nacional, al pasar de 5.5 a 9.3 millones al cabo de los treinta años, mientras la oferta de fuerza de trabajo más dinámica será la de Quintana Roo con una tasa media anual de crecimiento de 3.54 por ciento, es decir, casi dos veces y media superior al promedio nacional de 1.39 por ciento.” Por supuesto que estas apreciaciones se basan en las tasas de crecimiento acelerado que se han tenido principalmente en Cancún y Playa del Carmen.
Esto implica un compromiso de todos los gobernantes en el estado a nivel estatal y municipal, con las futuras generaciones. Al descender en porcentajes la demanda de servicios de la población dependiente con respecto a la población en edad económicamente productiva, se dispone de más recursos para atender las necesidades de la sociedad en conjunto. Esto significa que desde que se detectó que se había logrado bajar los índices de natalidad, se debieron hacer proyectos, planes, etc., para aprovechar al máximo el bono demográfico, y aún desde antes. Pero esto no ha sido así.
Algunas de las condiciones necesarias para fructificar el bono demográfico son:
1.-Educación. La transformación de una población joven en una fuerza laboral productiva. Esto requiere inversión en todos los niveles educativos. Y
2.- Buena gobernabilidad. Los pasos necesarios para un mejor aprovechamiento del bono demográfico deben incluir el fortalecimiento de la ley, el mejoramiento en la eficiencia del gobierno, la reducción de la corrupción y la garantía de la ejecución de los contratos.
¿Cómo medir los avances? Bueno, afortunadamente, existen los Consejos de Población a nivel Nacional, Estatal y Municipal, cuya responsabilidad es ésa precisamente, aunque pareciera que algunas de ellas se limitan a regalar condones como festejo del día mundial de la población y andar organizando concursos de dibujo entre la población infantil. Éstos Consejos son los encargados de proporcionar los datos necesarios para el ejercicio de un buen gobierno cada uno en su respectivo ámbito de competencia y de monitorear si los programas de desarrollo están cumpliendo sus metas.
Desafortunadamente el Bono Demográfico no dura para siempre. No debemos ver el Bono Demográfico como una oportunidad, que, si se quiere se aprovecha y si no, no pasa nada. El Bono Demográfico es un estatus quo que obliga a superarse a todos, como ciudadanos, como trabajadores, como empresarios y como gobernantes. No es algo que sucedió por casualidad. Es algo que se buscó y lo conseguimos con mucho esfuerzo. Que se invirtieron muchos millones, en campañas de difusión, de salud, etc. Es el fruto de un cambio en nuestra forma de pensar y de ver la vida (¿recuerdan eso de “la familia pequeña vive mejor”?). En resumen, es un logro de nuestras generaciones. Ahora sí, a nuestros gobernantes les estamos dando las condiciones para generar un gran desarrollo económico y social. Las condiciones que, al no haberlas, se convertían en pretexto de un desempeño fútil. No hay excusa. Señores políticos… ¡A trabajar!

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